Six years of a Republican majority in the house of representatives and senate came to an end today. George Bush will somehow have to manage a concilliatory tone when he calls expected Democratic speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi for a congratulatory call in the next couple of days. While news of whether the senate will pass into Democratic hands is uncertain at present, the implications of a republican president and a democratic congress hold several possibilities.
As some CNN commentators suggested, the results of this midterm election may portend a deadlocked, ineffective next two years, defined by a congress which challenges presidential power in ways Mr. Bush has never before experienced, and a president who can use his veto power to thwart congressional actions.
Others noted the possibility that Mr. Bush and the Pelosi-led house will strike a centrist balance, aiming to pass moderate legislation and actions which may satisfy an empowered alliance of moderate republicans and conservative democrats.
As far as policy on the Iraq war - the key issue in this election - Mr. Bush is not likely to change the course. He has nothing to gain politically from a pullout, and little to lose.
Attention now turns to the broader implications of this election. Is this result nothing more than a vote against the Republicans, as opposed to a decision actively in favour of the Democratic party's agenda? Most analysts suggest that, at this point, this is a referendum against the status quo, and the extent to which the GOP represents that unhappy set of policies.
Nonetheless, the disquiting last-minute surge in Republican support, as well as the nail-biting insecurity among Democrats over their ability to obtain a victory - despite an extraordinarily favourable political environment - suggests that popular support for the Democrats may not necessarily accompany this victory. In fact, it may simply allow a temporarily weakened Republican party to re-energize while they prepare to vigorously compete for the 2008 presidential campaign.
To succeed long term, the Democrats must turn their image around with this victory, and establish a reputation for competence, effective centrist social and economic policies coupled with rigorous defence of their constituent's interests. Alternately, the greater prominence their party has achieved holds the risk of highlighting a continuation of their historically lacking party organization and inability to inspire mainstream voters.
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